Publication: Advances in Polar Science (APS). Vol. 34, No. 1, 45~55, March 2023
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Author: ZHOU Xuelian and HU Maixiu
DOI:10.13679/j.advps.2022.0056
CNARC member: Polar Research Institute of China (PRIC)
Abstract: We developed a multinomial-logit-based stochastic user equilibrium (MNL SUE) model incorporating time value of cargo to investigate future proportions of cargo flow through the Northeast Passage (NEP) and the Suez Canal Route between representative ports. We studied navigation during the ice-free and ice-covered seasons using sea ice projections for 2070 based on 1991–2021 NEP ice data. Sailing distance and time between selected ports are lower via the NEP than the Suez Canal Route. Under the scenario of year-round operation of the NEP, the proportion of cargo flow through the NEP is estimated to be 68.5%, which represents considerable commercial potential. Proportions are higher for the ice-free season and for ports at high latitudes. We also assessed flow under different scenarios. Under the scenario of fuel price increase, proportion of flow through the NEP in the ice-covered season is expected to increase. If time value is ignored, flow through the NEP is expected to increase all year round. If shippers become more cost-conscious, flow through the NEP is also expected to increase.
Key words: Northeast Passage, multinomial-logit-based stochastic user equilibrium (MNL SUE), time value, scenario analysis
